On a global level, several studies indicate that climatic changes are most likely to impact food production and pose serious challenges to food security.
On a global level, several studies indicate that climatic changes are most likely to impact food production and pose serious challenges to food security.
Due to climate change, agricultural systems need to use different techniques and strategies not only to increase food supply and cater to the growing population on a global scale but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on Earth.
To assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production, crop simulation models are used as primary tools, and some informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management are also available. For developing new models, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for testing.
Accelerated climate change affects components of complex biological interactions differentially and also causes changes that are difficult to predict. Some diseases that themselves will change but remain important also affect crop yield and quality. Food security brings in additional socio-economical, geographical, and political factors.
Climatic change has already caused significant impacts on water resources, food security, hydropower, and human health, especially for African countries and the whole world.
Even in high-yield and high-technology agricultural areas, climate variability is one of the most beneficial factors influencing year-to-year crop production. In recent years, more and more attention has been given to the risks associated with climate change.
Cropping systems will also change in response to climate, with consequent impacts on their interactions with pathogens and pests. When changes occur in temperature, CO2, and water (climate change), they have direct effects on the yield potential of the crops.
Pests and pathogens have major effects on determining actual yield. In practice, most crops are not only affected by a single pest or pathogen. The interacting driven forces of income growth, markets, population increase, urbanisation, and globalisation in food production, markets, and consumption have changed food and agricultural systems worldwide.
Strategies for adapting crop varieties to climate change:
Climatic changes will affect agriculture through their impact on crops, soils, insects, weeds, diseases, and livestock. In the world, agriculture and climate researchers are continuously developing different adaptation strategies for mitigating the impacts of climate change on food security.
To overcome the impact of climate change, the development of stress-tolerant, higher-yielding, and early-maturing varieties of crops through plant breeding and biotechnological approaches is an important strategy.
Due to agronomic improvements and plant breeding of existing crop varieties, food production has increased by 32 million metric tonnes per year globally.
Crop rotation, intercropping, and improving the efficacy of pest, disease, and weed management through the wider use of integrated pest and pathogen management could also be helpful in mitigating the negative impacts of climate change.
Climate change effects on crop yield:
Simulation of production for cropping systems showed that the effects of increased CO2 and climate change would depress crop yields by 10–40%. The warmer air temperatures would accelerate the phenology of current cultivars.
Like in rice, wheat, etc., 60–90% more irrigation water was required to maintain grain yields under conditions of climate change. Due to temperature fluctuations, soil erosion, crop rotation, increases in carbon dioxide, etc., these factors also decrease the crop yield.
Adaptations required:
New cropping systems that are resilient to changing climate conditions are required. Crop selection is used to determine mechanisms and sources of durable disease resistance.
Selection of crop for identifying mechanisms and sources of resilience and resistance to abiotic stresses, including drought and cold. Genetic enhancement to cope with more variable growing conditions.
The development of new varieties proved beneficial in yield production with favorable growing conditions.
Agricultural comebacks to probable climate change dynamics:
Agricultural productivity is also affected by environmental effects such as soil erosion, land availability, the frequency and intensity of soil drainage (leading to nitrogen leaching), and the reduction of crop diversity. Higher atmospheric CO2, changes in precipitation, and higher temperatures also have an effect on crop yield (both quality and quantity).
An atmosphere with a higher CO2 concentration would result in higher net photosynthetic rates. Higher CO2 concentrations may also reduce transpiration as plants decrease their stomatal apertures. In the leaves, through small openings, CO2 and water vapour are exchanged with the atmosphere.
For every 75 ppm increase in carbon dioxide concentration, rice yields will increase by 0.5 t/ha, but yields will decrease by 0.6 tonnes/ha for every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature. Yield losses are caused by concurrent increases in carbon dioxide and temperature and are primarily caused by high temperature-induced spikelet sterility.
Challenges:
In the present time, changes in climate like temperature, water availability, crop rotation, low-yielding varieties, no technical methods used for sowing and harvesting of crops, etc. are some major challenges. Crop yield decreased due to the shattering of pods and due to temperature fluctuations, plants did not fulfil their nutrients and life cycle on time.
We need to produce the best genetically characterised varieties that stand in bad climates and provide a high yield. Irrigated areas are facing many difficulties, so we should need to expand the irrigated areas so that the crop yield will also increase.
Global warming will influence temperature and rainfall, which will directly have effects on the soil moisture status and groundwater level. Food insecurity arises from the occurrence of floods and droughts.
Land degradation is due to heavy rainfall. We should need to secure food or crops from these issues by using different genetic techniques, produce the best varieties that tackle these issues, and, on the other hand, make climatic models.
Conclusions:
Climate change is a natural phenomenon affecting food security, agriculture, and natural resources. Climate change directly and indirectly affects crop growth yield, water availability, and productivity.
Climate change mitigation strategies and adaptation can be explored by understanding and analysing the real impacts of climate change impacts for sustainable agricultural productivity and food security. The impacts of climate change can be minimised by adjusting agriculture to a changing set of climatic parameters.
This article is jointly authored by Muhammad Younas Tahir, Amir Yaseen, Aqeel Ahmad, Muhammad Baqir and Badar Munir.