Forecasts for the initial quarter of 2024 indicate an excess of rainfall in southern cone countries like Peru and Ecuador, as well as Mexico.
As per the latest forecasts from the United Nations, the El Nino weather phenomenon is projected to persist through the first half of 2024, heightening worries for the agricultural sector in Latin America. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported a significant surge in Pacific sea surface temperatures, particularly along the South American coast.
Forecasts for the initial quarter of 2024 indicate an excess of rainfall in southern cone countries like Peru and Ecuador, as well as Mexico. Meanwhile, regions including Brazil, Guyana, and Suriname are expected to continue grappling with prolonged dry conditions. Central America, presently experiencing a dry spell, is anticipated to see relief by the year’s end.
The report underscores the agriculture sector’s vulnerability, encompassing crops, livestock, forests, and fishing, with the capacity to absorb up to 26% of economic losses during extreme weather conditions and a staggering 82% during drought. Critical fish species, notably anchovies and tuna off the northern coast of Peru and southern Ecuador, are particularly threatened.
Ecuadorian fishermen have reported a significant 30% decline in tuna catches since February, underscoring the tangible impacts of the El Niño phenomenon on livelihoods.
Both El Niño and its counter-phenomenon, La Niña, have significantly impacted the production of staple crops such as wheat, rice, and corn in Latin America, which rely heavily on raw materials. The region faces a dual challenge, as it confronts not only the immediate effects of El Niño but also the broader impacts of climate change, including heatwaves.
In response to the crisis, the FAO has initiated a plan to mobilize financial resources aimed at supporting vulnerable communities in numerous countries grappling with the harsh effects of extreme weather.
As the El Nino weather phenomenon extends its influence into 2024, vigilance and adaptive measures in the agricultural sector will be crucial for safeguarding livelihoods and mitigating economic losses across Latin America.