Around 33 million people were affected by torrential monsoon rains and floods last year, making Pakistan experience one of the worst effects of climate change in its history.
An eight-nation assessment report concluded that global warming is irreversible and unprecedented in its effects on glaciers, snow, and permafrost in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, including Pakistan. The International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) report uses scientific advancements to map the connections between the cryosphere, water, biodiversity, and society in the area.
The ICIMOD report used cutting-edge research to map for the first time the connections between the region’s cryosphere—the frozen parts of the planet—water, biodiversity, and society.
It illustrated how quickly changing glaciers and snow affected both people and the environment. The report is based on the “most accurate assessment” of changes to the Asia high mountain cryosphere to date, according to the ICIMOD.
According to the report, “[it] finds that, on current emission trajectories, glaciers in the HKH [including in Pakistan] could lose up to 80% of their current volume by the end of the century.”
“Under high emissions scenarios, snow cover is projected to decline by up to a quarter, significantly reducing freshwater for major rivers like the Amu Darya, where it contributes up to 74 percent of river flow, the Indus (40 percent), and Helmand (77 percent).”
According to the report, the HKH region, which includes Pakistan, is expected to experience an increase in floods and landslides over the next few decades, with fast-onset hazards like glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and slow-onset hazards like erosion and sedimentation frequently occurring simultaneously in the same catchments.
It stated that “by the end of the century, the region could experience a significant spike in GLOF risk due to the 200 glacier lakes that are considered dangerous throughout the HKH.”
Exposure to these hazards increases the risk of loss and damage, including population displacement, when combined with increased economic activity and population growth in the area.
Around 33 million people were affected by torrential monsoon rains and floods last year, making Pakistan experience one of the worst effects of climate change in its history. More than 1,700 Pakistanis were killed and homes, infrastructure, and agricultural lands were destroyed by the floods.
According to the ICIMOD report, the effects of the changing cryosphere on sensitive mountain habitats are particularly severe, with cascading effects affecting the majority of resident species in most ecosystems.
It stated that “species decline and extinction, range shift of species to higher elevations, ecosystem degradation, decrease in habitat suitability, and invasion of alien species have already been reported.”
“Nature is particularly vulnerable to climate impacts” because “67 percent of the HKH’s ecoregions and 39 percent of the four HKH-located global biodiversity hotspots remain outside protected areas.”