African demand for solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal energy is enormous, and international interests have been flocking to the market to get an early foothold.
Africa is facing an energy trilemma: how to ensure that the energy supply is sufficient, affordable, and sustainable. 600 million people lack access to energy, and by 2050, one in four people on the planet will be in sub-Saharan Africa. To meet this African energy demand, a ten-fold increase in power generation capacity by 2065 is needed.
African demand for solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal energy is enormous, and international interests have been flocking to the market to get an early foothold.
Russia and China have been facing off for dominance in emerging African energy markets, and Europe’s demand for solar energy is pushing European developers into the Sahara in search of sun and vast tracts of land. This is due to the continent’s prime real estate for solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal energy production.
However, according to experts in international development, national development in Africa is required for the growth of the continent’s energy sector.
Sebastian Sterl, a Senior Research Associate at the World Resources Institute, recently published an opinion piece in which he outlines five major obstacles that African leaders must overcome to overcome this energy trilemma and take charge of their own clean energy development:
The real cost of renewables
Renewable energies have proven to be competitively cheap elsewhere in the world, but this won’t be the case in Africa due to the high risks investors assign to most African countries.
This means power plants must charge customers a higher price per kilowatt hour to break even. To solve this challenge, a strategic approach is needed to de-risk these investments so that energy remains within reach for cash-strapped consumers.
Variability
Wind and solar power are produced according to the whims of the weather, which puts an added strain on electrical grids.
African countries lack this kind of infrastructure, and doubling down on wind and solar without properly supporting and developing them could worsen energy security issues rather than improve them.
Wind and solar power are produced according to the whims of the weather, unlike fossil fuels which can be produced and consumed according to demand patterns. This puts an added strain on electrical grids, and requires resilient and smart grids able to handle the waxing and waning of supply and demand sides.
Matching supply and demand
The financial success of power utilities depends on large commercial and industrial customers with reliable demand. This poses a challenge in countries where these sectors are underdeveloped.
Utility companies need to connect a high number of low-consumption customers whose electricity bills will be low, while electricity prices remain affordable. This will require major policy support and economic incentives to turn this vicious cycle into a virtuous one.
“Leapfrogging” fossil fuel use
Africa needs to electrify and substitute fuels in order to decarbonize, but consumption of fuels is just beginning. This will require new ways of conceptualizing the green energy transition.
This is an ethically tricky area, as many leaders in the developing world feel that their countries should have the opportunity to develop their economies before being asked to kickstart a green energy transition.
Oil and gas
The African continent is home to oil and gas reserves that could provide an essential kickstart to local economies. Many African leaders insist that they should be allowed to capitalize on this without pressure from nations that have already gotten rich off of their own fossil fuel reserves. However, the economics of this situation are not so clear.
As the world moves away from oil and gas, African nations could be left with stranded assets, and studies show that developing African oil and gas will not solve Africa’s own energy poverty. Additionally, 89% of the liquified natural gas infrastructure being built in Africa is to be exported to Europe to bail them out of their addiction to Russian gas.
The importance of decarbonization is more obvious in Africa, as seven out of the ten countries most vulnerable to climate change are located in Africa and will be disproportionately impacted by each additional ton of carbon dioxide equivalent released into the atmosphere. However, allowing African nations to have their turn to pollute freely is clearly not a solution.
Africa is in a unique position as the world energy sector enters a period of great uncertainty, posing significant planning challenges. But if all of the issues mentioned above are taken into consideration and properly planned for, the continent may be able to take advantage of a significant clean energy opportunity. The time is right for Africa to shift its narrative from victimisation to leadership and resilience in the face of climate change.