Earlier this range was at 1.5-4.5℃. The new range brings some relief as it shows that some alarmingly high estimates of climate models are unlikely, The Conversation reported.
To study the effect of climate change, scientists use the temperature rise for a sustained doubling of carbon dioxide concentrations, known as “equilibrium climate sensitivity”. As per the study, the new calculated range is 2.6–3.9℃.
Earlier this range was at 1.5-4.5℃. The new range brings some relief as it shows that some alarmingly high estimates of climate models are unlikely, The Conversation reported.
Based on the severity of the warming, some of the current and future climate change impacts include heatwaves, changing rainfall and drought patterns, and rising seas, the report said.
The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is likely to double sometime in 2060 and 2080, relative to concentrations before the industrial revolution.
According to the report, narrowing the equilibrium climate sensitivity range has been a key focus of climate science.
The new study removes the possibility of low climate sensitivities, after finding only a 5 percent chance that equilibrium climate sensitivity is below 2.3℃.
The new assessment included first using the historical past since industrialisation, during which time temperatures have increased by about 1.1℃, and comparing this with knowledge about the natural drivers of climate over this period (such as slight changes in solar output and a few major volcanic eruptions), human-caused increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and changes to the land surface.
Second, the study uses data for temperature changes and the underpinning natural processes from ice ages and warm periods in pre-historic times.
And third, it uses physical laws and present-day observations to evaluate how the planet responds to change, for example by examining brief warming or cooling episodes, the report said.
Human activities will likely continue to remain the main determinant for future temperatures, as practicing aggressive emissions controls will look different from a world in which it is not practiced.
Originally published at Money control