In the United States, the IEA predicts that electric vehicles will constitute 50 percent of new car registrations by 2030, a significant leap from the previously projected 12 percent.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected a potential peak in global demand for coal, oil, and gas before 2030. The IEA’s 2023 World Energy Outlook anticipates a drop in fossil fuels’ share in the global energy supply from 80 percent to 73 percent by the end of the decade, based on current energy and climate policies.
Despite this positive trend, the report notes that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions may crest by 2025, remaining too high to meet the crucial 1.5-degree Celsius global warming target.
IEA Executive Director, Fatih Birol, underscored the inexorable momentum of the global transition to clean energy, stating, “The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it’s unstoppable. It’s not a question of ‘if’, it’s just a matter of ‘how soon’ — and the sooner the better for all of us.” He urged governments, companies, and investors to actively support and expedite this transition.
According to the IEA, clean energy is poised to play a significantly larger role in 2030 compared to the present. The report envisions nearly tenfold growth in electric cars on the road and renewables accounting for nearly half of the global electricity mix. Concurrently, the rate of new global fossil fuel infrastructure projects has decelerated, with worldwide additions of coal and natural-gas-fired power plants decreasing by half compared to previous peaks.
Birol emphasized the substantial advantages of expediting the switch to clean energy, particularly in the context of ongoing challenges and volatility in traditional energy markets. He cautioned against considering oil and gas as secure choices for the world’s energy and climate future.
The IEA conducted a thorough analysis of energy trends across three scenarios: one based on current energy and climate policies, another based on energy and climate targets set by governments, and a third aligned with achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.
The report highlighted that investment in oil and gas is almost twice the level required for the net-zero emissions scenario, indicating a clear risk of prolonged fossil fuel use potentially undermining the 1.5-degree Celsius target.
Even in the scenario where current policies persist, renewables are projected to contribute 80 percent of all new power capacity by 2030. Solar photovoltaic systems are anticipated to constitute over half of this new renewable energy supply, with significant room for expansion as global manufacturing capabilities continue to grow.
In the United States, the IEA predicts that electric vehicles will constitute 50 percent of new car registrations by 2030, a significant leap from the previously projected 12 percent. This surge is attributed to incentives like the Inflation Reduction Act, including the $7,500 tax credit for EV consumers.
Loren McDonald, CEO of EVAdoption, emphasized that the adoption of electric vehicles will vary considerably among states, reflecting the diverse pace of transition across the nation. While some states like California, Oregon, and Washington are expected to lead in adoption, at least 20 other states may adopt EVs at a slower pace, reaching at most 20 percent of new car registrations by 2030.
McDonald sees a potential for the U.S. to achieve the 50 percent threshold, provided all the necessary elements fall into place.