The AGRA Food Security Monitor examines and discusses changes in a few variables and their effects on the trade in food as well as the security of food and nutrition.

The situation with regard to food security in Eastern Africa has only gotten worse as a result of the delayed rains. The Food Security Monitor report from the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) states that due to numerous shocks, Kenya continues to experience high levels of food insecurity.

These include a fifth successive below-average rainy season that was brief and unevenly distributed in space, the report claims. This resulted in “below-average crop production, subpar livestock conditions, and increased exposure to livestock disease,” according to the report.

However, due to the effect of the rains on these areas’ livelihoods, there were slight improvements in food insecurity throughout the ASAL areas. The report stated that “these improvements are anticipated to last only a brief period, with the situation projected to deteriorate from March to June 2023.”

The food insecurity report about Kenya also revealed an increase in the number of people who are unable to produce or afford food, as well as an increase in the prices of basic food items. The report revealed that due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and persistently low domestic cereal supplies, a large portion of East Africa continues to experience unusually high food prices.

Eldoret and Nakuru in Kenya have lower average maize prices now than they did one to three months ago. Maize costs in Nakuru were also lower than they had been six months prior by 22.57%.

The surplus of approximately 6.7 million bags, based on carryover stocks of 14.2 million bags, the estimated 400,000 bags that will be imported from the region by the private sector, and the two million bags outside of Comesa, according to AGRA’s report, were the causes of the price decreases.

Worldwide shipments of wheat, maize, soybeans, and barley to African nations totaled 289,995 metric tonnes in February 2023. These shipments went to Algeria, Egypt, Kenya, Libya, and Tunisia, among other countries.

In general, fertiliser costs were lower in January than they had been over the previous one to six months. Due to weak seasonal demand, fertiliser prices, specifically those for nitrate, phosphate, and urea, were lower than they had been in the previous one to six months.

NPK fertilisers saw modest increases (between 0 and 5%) from three to six months prior, but January 2022 prices were lower than December 2022 prices. The AGRA Food Security Monitor examines and discusses changes in a few variables and their effects on the trade in food as well as the security of food and nutrition.

The Kenya Meteorological Department indicates that the March to May period is the major rainfall season in Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa, with the highest seasonal rainfall amounts (greater than 300mm) occurring over the Lake Victoria Basin, the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valleys, and the coastal strip.

Below-average rainfall is predicted for the Lake Victoria Basin, the Central Rift Valley, the highlands east of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County), the coastal region, the majority of the northeastern and southeastern lowlands, and western Narok, according to the March-April-May (MAM) 2023 weather outlook.

In general, portions of the Northwestern (Central and Eastern Turkana), South Rift Valley (Eastern Narok), Southeastern lowlands (Kajiado), and western portions of Marsabit are expected to receive near-average rainfall.