Let’s take KE’s claim Load Management as the truth of 3600 MW being the peak demand in Karachi .
Why doesn’t anyone do an objective need assessment of power consumption by a third party source of what is the true consumption of power in karachi ? How can it be 3600 MW as per KE ? With zero nightlife after 7 pm . Closed wedding places . Closed Restaurants with no air conditioning . Closed shopping areas on two days a week . Unless we get the exact consumption levels in from last year same month and subtract the closed sectors only then we get the true nature of the beast .
Plus the usual 30% karachi under forced load shedding as a matter of routine as per high loss area policy which is rubbished by nepra already .
Let’s take KE’s claim Load Management as the truth of 3600 MW being the peak demand in Karachi .
70% is load shedding free area in Karachi . This means 2520( 70% of 3600) MW if available then there should be no load shedding in 24 hours right in 70% of karachi ? So 100 MW is roughly co relating to zero loss per hour or every 100 MW reduction in availability is equal to one hour of load shedding .
We assume 30% load shedding is going on as usual based on theft . This means KE does not supply roughly 300 MW to karachi based on theft based issues .
Question now arises does KE have enough gas and furnace oil now ? Yes it does . What is the production level of power these days ? If nepra can be put this query and it gives us the figures then matter will be cleared .
650 MW is historical grid availability to KE from NTDC . Plus 300 committed . This makes around 1000 MW ready made energy with zero overheads . In other words 40% of karachi power is out to KE without it lifting any gas or furnace oil . Leftover is only 1500 MW roughly . 560 MW is BQ 2. Left over is 1000 MW .
As per KE ‘s own admission following is the capacity of generation
“K-Electric is the only vertically-integrated power utility in Pakistan. It produces electricity from its own generation units with installed capacity of 2,267 MW and in addition, has arrangements with external power producers for around 1,360 MW which includes 800 MW from the National Grid.”
( official KE website )
360 available from leftover from 1360 MW external supply of power . This leaves 640 MW from KE’s own generation resources which is 2267 MW . This is 30% of its installed capacity which is possible at all times regardless of oil or gas restrains .
So my question is that can the entire fleet of KE not make 640 MW ? Is this rocket science ? In reality even if KE makes 50% of its installed capacity then the 300 MW of load that is restricted due to high theft area is also present in its own capacity . In other words KE has surplus power generation capacity of 1000 MW meaning that it can withstand today supply demand of 4600 MW .
So how is there 18 hours of load shedding as each hour means 100 MW of power generation shortage whereas in reality there is an over supply capability of 1000 MW now ? There should not be even one hour of load shedding in this city if my calculations are correct . All load shedding should be directly co related to the generation and assessed as per my submissions .
The only reason that I see is that either the plants are totally incapable or they are deliberately kept closed to get subsidised gas and deferred payment oil . However the loss in GDP and the misery inflicted is in no way justified due to internal management issues of KE that is earning two billion rupee profits per month .
Govt has 27% share in KE . This means govt is directly being enriched monetarily by KE at the cost of loss of GDP and ruining lives and livelihoods of its own citizens .
Why can’t nepra see all this ?
Originally published at KE